How Will Heated Tobacco Price Hikes Change Smoker Behavior? Future Price Increase Schedule & Impact

2026-10-1 price revision: list by brand and annual cost difference

Hello, I'm Genki, a heated tobacco and e-cigarette blogger.

2026年10月1日（改定前発表当時）から、加熱式たばこスティックが一斉に値上げされます。主要銘柄では箱あたり20〜40円の価格改定が予定されており、IQOS・Ploom・glo各ブランドが対象です。

With a price hike having just taken place in 2026-4, this marks another increase in less than half a year. As tax hikes also hit conventional cigarettes, smokers are understandably concerned about the impact on their household budgets.

In this article, we analyze post-hike behavioral changes based on data from a large-scale awareness survey and explain the upcoming price increase schedule and countermeasures!

How Big Is the 2026-10 Price Hike? Revisions for Major Varieties

The price increase amounts for major brands confirmed at this stage are as follows. All are approved for revision on 2026-10-1.

brand	Price Increase
TEREA	+20 yen
SENTIA	+20 yen
MIIX	+30 yen
EVO (for Ploom)	+40 yen
MEVIUS (for Ploom)	+40 yen
CAMEL (for Ploom)	+40 yen
KENT (for glo)	+30 yen
neo (for glo)	+40 yen
Lucky Strike (for glo)	+20 yen
virto (for glo)	+20 yen

A detailed list of old and new prices is summarized in our previous article '2026-10 Heated & Conventional Cigarette Price Hike List.' Please check that article as well.

What Will Smokers Do After the Hike? Honest Views from a Survey of 49,879 People

According to a large-scale awareness survey conducted by RELAZO (covering 49,879 men and women aged 20 to 69 nationwide), current smokers account for 22.9%. The most commonly smoked products were conventional cigarettes at 57.5% and heated tobacco at 39.9%.

Even after the price hike, 49.6%—nearly half—said they 'want to keep smoking the same brand,' while 25.6% said they 'want to switch to a slightly cheaper tobacco brand' and 17.4% said they 'want to quit smoking.'

The data also shows that at 600 yen per pack, about 4 in ten smokers consider quitting, and at 1,000 yen per pack, about 9 in ten consider quitting. This shows how rising prices act as a direct trigger for changing behavior.

Price per Pack (Cumulative)	Intention to Quit
Up to 600 yen	About 4 in ten
Up to 700 yen	About 6 in ten
Up to 1,000 yen	About 9 in ten

Differences in Intention to Quit by Annual Income

Among those with an annual income under 400 ten-thousand yen, 47.0% answered that they would quit at the 600 yen mark. By contrast, among those earning 1,500 ten-thousand yen or more, the figure remained at 25.6%, highlighting an 'indulgence gap' driven by economic circumstances.

3 Behavioral Changes Likely to Occur After the Price Hike

Based on the survey results, smoker behavior after the price hike broadly falls into 3 patterns.

• Keep smoking the same variety: About half accept the new price and stay with their favorite brand
• Switch to a cheaper variety: Lower-priced options like SENTIA and Lucky Strike draw attention
• Quit or cut back: Intention rises from the 600 yen range and reaches 9 in ten at 1,000 yen

When combined with the month 4 hike, some heated tobacco varieties will have risen by 60 yen or more within half a year, narrowing the price gap with conventional cigarettes. Users face a fresh choice over whether to stick with heated tobacco or return to cigarettes.

Meanwhile, some heated tobacco devices on the market tout the ability to 'smoke 1 stick 2 times,' gaining traction as a way to hold down effective costs. However, be sure to carefully check reviews and official information regarding usability and safety before purchasing such products.

What Is the Future Price Hike Schedule? Tax Increases Continue from 2027 Onward

The 2026-10 price increase is driven primarily by a tax hike on heated tobacco sticks. Phased tax increases starting in 2026 have been decided, raising the tax rate in month 10 following the hike in month 4.

Furthermore, it has been reported that increases to the national tobacco tax rate itself are also lined up for 2027 to 2029. Specific tax rates and implementation dates are expected to be officially announced in the future.

Confirmed information is still limited at this stage. Let's wait for official announcements from the Ministry of Finance and each manufacturer for the latest price and tax developments.

Countermeasures and Points to Note Before the Price Hike

Countermeasures you can take before the price hike are as follows.

• Buy in bulk before the price increase takes effect
• Purchase using credit cards or e-money that offer point rewards
• Switch to a lower-priced variety such as SENTIA
• Consider quitting smoking or reducing the number of sticks used

However, buying in bulk carries storage space requirements and the risk of quality degradation. Choosing an approach that suits you is important.

If you are thinking of using the price hike as an opportunity to quit smoking, making use of support services at a comfortable pace is another option. Consider checking local smoking cessation clinics as well.

Related Articles to Read Together

• 2026-10 Heated & Conventional Tobacco Price Hike List｜When Does It Start & Price Comparison
• 2026-10 Tobacco Price Increase | Explaining New Prices of Major Brands and Reasons for the Hike
• IQOS ILUMA / ILUMA i Dedicated Stick Price Revision Summary｜Price Increase from 2026-10

summary

The 2026-10 heated tobacco price hike is an unavoidable topic for many smokers. While the survey shows about half intend to stick with their current brand, many are also considering switching to cheaper sticks or quitting.

Because the trend of tax increases is likely to continue, it pays to plan ahead before prices go up. Please check each manufacturer's official website and related MOQLOG articles for the latest price information.

Tobacco products and e-cigarettes cannot be used by persons under 20 years of age. Please also refrain from use if you are pregnant, nursing, or concerned about your health, and always be considerate of those around you when smoking.